ULP will win again

EDITOR: Already the pundits are predicting the outcome of the next General Elections constitutionally due by June 2006.

Drs. Ralph Gonsalves and Kenneth John have predicted 14-1 and 10-5 for the U.L.P and N.D.P respectively.{{more}}

I am no pundit; just a trained teacher in my mid-forties with a lot of contacts in every constituency in this country. I also travel this country throughout on a regular basis speaking to a good cross-section of electorates in most of the large communities in every constituency except the Grenadines. Therefore, I have a very good idea of what the results will be like if General Elections were to be held anytime in the near future.

Here are my findings constituency by constituency.

1. North Leeward: ULP will win by a reduced majority than it did in 2001. Patel Matthews will get a few more votes but not enough to take this constituency from Dr. J. Thompson.

Matthews does not do enough footwork in the constituency. He needs to muster the strength to approach the ULP support in the constituency to win some of them over. Merely hoping they will come on their own is not enough.

2. Central Leeward: Still very firm in the hands of ULP. Norell Hull, by far NDP’s best caretaker has tried very hard over the last four years but to no avail. He will be soundly beaten again in Central Leeward, if he is the candidate.

3. South Leeward: Again will go to ULP with a reduced majority. NDP’s best hope of winning the seat looks doubtful with Jerry Scott’s illness. The others named to replace him don’t have a chance.

4. Until Daniel Cummings came on the scene as a possible candidate for West Kingstown, the NDP was poised to win all three Kingstown seats. For now, I will need a little more time to see how things will play out in West Kingstown. I will suggest to the NDP leadership to keep Cummings out as a candidate. He seems to me to be arrogant, revengeful and unapproachable traits that can affect the entire NDP campaign.

5. West St. George will go ULP. NDP is still scrunting for a proper candidate for this constituency since Dr. Lewis’ switch to East St. George. Just-come Kingsley Layne cannot win Mike Browne, although he deserves to lose for his poor performance.

6. East St. George will go NDP. Burgin is a total failure mainly because he wasn’t given a chance to show his potential. He was totally overshadowed by the Prime Minister and never allowed to develop his potential.

7. Marriaqua is still a ULP stronghold. Rasum Shallow has not grown over the last four years. He failed to bring new votes to the NDP and I am not even sure he was able to keep the ones he had in 2001. All of this happened, even though Girlyn Miguel grew unpopular.

8. South Windward is still ULP stronghold. Scombo John stays away too long from SVG to make any impact there.

9. South Central will go towards the NDP. Selmon Walters is too arrogant to retain that seat.

10. North Central is a forgone conclusion. The Comrade has lost some votes but will bring home this seat again by a wide margin.

11. If what I am hearing is true, that Elvis Daniel is being considered as the candidate for North Windward for the NDP, then this seat, which I had only one month ago assessed as a NDP seat, will certainly go to ULP.

So in summary ULP by my judgement will win 8 seats, NDP 6 seats with one seat – West Kingstown – still up for grabs,.

An Elector