Researcher says poll results are valid ‘snapshot’ of views of SVG voters

by Christina Smith

The lead researcher on a recent political poll conducted in St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) has said while it is “yet to be seen” if the survey has any bearing on the upcoming election, he believes the results are a valid snapshot of the views of the voter population.

The poll, commissioned by the Caribbean Institute for Governance and Policy Research, was conducted in SVG from June 1 to June 16, 2024, and led by political scientist, Devaron Bruce.

The results, which were released to the media on August 14, have generated much public discourse on social media as well as radio, and drawn comments from Prime Minister, Dr Ralph Gonsalves in yesterday’s meeting of the House of Parliament.
Talking points have centred on the poll results questions- who would do a better job as Prime Minister of SVG with Head of Cricket West Indies, Dr Kishore Shallow being pointed to as the clear choice among respondents; as well as which political party will win if General Elections “were to be called tomorrow”, with almost equal support being shown to both the Opposition New Democratic Party, and the ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP).

A total of 1,123 respondents were surveyed across mainland St Vincent and also the Grenadines in all 15 constituencies. Respondents on the mainland were surveyed in person, while those in the two Grenadine constituencies were surveyed virtually.

In defense of the seemingly small number of respondents surveyed, Bruce, in an interview with SEARCHLIGHT said this was a satisfactory sample size reflective of the population.
“There is a formula to determine how much of a percentage of a population you can survey in order for it to be considered a satisfactory sample… So one per cent of the population, when it comes to surveying, is actually what we would consider at the satisfactory sample size,” he said.
“I know many people may say, well, you’ve got 100,000 Vincentians. Based on sample sizing and how we actually do research that actually is very close to what we consider satisfactory within a margin of error of five percent.”
The margin of error refers to the degree of confidence in the accuracy of the results of the survey.

Bruce said while a political poll is not a prediction of an election result, he believes the results show what could possibly be another neck and neck result as has been the case in the 2020 and 2015 General Elections.

In 2015, the incumbent ULP claimed victory in an 8-7 win, amassing 52.28 per cent of the votes, against 47.37 per cent for the New Democratic Party (NDP). The popular vote was won by the ULP – 34,246 to the NDP got 31,027. However, the NDP gained the popular vote in the 2020 General Elections with 32,900 votes to the ULP’s 32,490. The ULP won the Parliamentary majority with nine seats to the NDP’s six seats.

Bruce said the results of the June poll fall in line with past election trends.
“Politics on the ground will always change. A poll will always be just a snapshot in time. Whether or not it has bearing for the upcoming election is yet to be seen. If you look at the results of the poll, they’re actually not far from the electoral results of the past.

If we look at the question- Do you have confidence in the leadership of Dr Godwin Friday, the individuals that said yes, 32.8 per cent; when that question was asked about the approval of Dr Gonsalves, the results, 35.2 per cent. So you’re seeing that those numbers are actually within a statistical tie … because the margin of error is five percent so the numbers are statistically tied. “
Bruce revealed that the Caribbean Institute for Governance and Policy Research is expected to carry out another political poll this year, however, he did not divulge details of the dates the poll will be conducted.