Vincies in favour of electing ‘young, dynamic leader’ – poll shows

Results of an independent political poll conducted by the Caribbean Institute for Governance and Policy Research shows that Vincentians support electing a “young dynamic leader” like their OECS counterparts in St Kitts and Nevis and Grenada.

These and other findings were published in the ‘St Vincent and The Grenadines Electoral Review National and Constituency Perspective, 2024’. The poll was conducted between June 1 to June 16, 2024 in 15 constituencies with a total of 1,123 respondents being surveyed to measure the sentiments of Vincentians on matters of political leadership, candidacy and matters of national concern.

Over half of the respondents show an “appetite for electing a younger leader”. To the question posed to respondents ‘Should SVG follow the example of Grenada and St Kitts and Nevis by electing a young, dynamic leader?’ 53.57 percent said yes, while 24.06 percent said no, while 22.37 percent said they were unsure.

Respondents were also provided a list of eight persons and asked to choose who can do a better job as Prime Minister of SVG. Dr Friday was the highest preferred option with 21.22 percent; Dr Kishore Shallow followed with 19.96 percent and Saboto Caesar 17.01, was third on the preferred alternative list of leaders. Fitz Bramble, Kiesal Peters, Akin John, Camillo Gonsalves and St Clair Leacock all received less than 10 percent of results. 14.15 percent chose the ‘Other’ option.

The survey pointed out that the results for Dr Friday and Dr Shallow were close, calling it a “remarkable accomplishment.

“This may in part be connected to majority of Vincentian’s appetite for a younger leader and the overall leadership qualities that Dr Shallow has despite him not yet being elected which is a remarkable accomplishment.”

Dr Shallow, who is currently the President of Cricket West Indies is being eyed to contest a New Democratic Party (NDP) ticket in the North Leeward constituency.

As it relates to the performance of the ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP), almost half of respondents marked their performance as poor, with 23.3 and 26.4 percent giving the party “no more than a  2 out of 5 rating”. Twenty percent of respondents thought the ULP was doing a good job, whereas 28.4 percent thought the party was doing a fair job.

“Given the parliamentary composition and electoral results over the last few elections, it is the 28 percent of [respondents] that believe that the ULP is doing a fair job that determines the electoral results,” the survey noted.

The survey also asked respondents to give their perspective on the leadership of Prime Minister, Dr Ralph Gonsalves and Opposition leader, Dr Godwin Friday. Thirty-five point two (35.2) percent of respondents said they approved of the Prime Minister’s performance, while 25 percent indicated that they were unsure, or won’t share their perceptions of his leadership.

The survey said the responses in favour of PM Gonsalves’ leadership is “notable” as he is “outperforming the ULP” with only 20 percent of respondents giving a positive assessment of the ULP, whereas 40 percent disapproved of PM Gonsalves’ performance.

“This 40 percent is generally in line with the level of disapproval of the ULP.”

As it relates to the 25 percent who chose the option ‘Unsure/Won’t Say, the survey said this percentage falls in line with those who rate the ULP as fair.

The survey also said that traditionally “wont’ say or unsure voters” tend to cast their votes in favour of government.

“… therefore, these won’t say or unsure [respondents] likely fit into the “fair” rating category for the ULP.

Results of the survey show that the 32 percent approval of Dr. Friday’s leadership fell closely in line with Dr Ralph Gonsalves’ 35.2 percent. Friday’s disapproval rating of 42.4 percent was also “relatively in line” with Dr Gonsalves at 39.2 percent.

Twenty four point eight (24.8) percent of respondents indicated that they were unsure of the performance of Dr Friday. “… these are likely swing or apathetic voters,” the poll noted.

The research was led by Barbados-based academic and political scientist, Devaron Bruce and the survey was conducted utilizing a digital instrument with in-person surveying.

The Electoral Office indicates there were 103,378 registered voters as of the second quarter of 2023.