The race is truly on in T&T

As we move toward finalising and bringing to fruition the Caribbean Single Market and Economy it becomes obvious that what goes on in any of the CSME countries must be of interest and concern to us. We still, however, have to be cautious about the intervention of governments and politicians generally in the domestic politics of other member states. This will continue to be a sensitive issue. Caribbean politics, in any event, is always fascinating and the upcoming elections in Trinidad and Tobago will take the cake where this is concerned.{{more}} The internal dynamics at play should keep those interested on the edge of their seats as we watch what will be a political bacchanal beyond any other. A number of interesting characters are strutting the stage. There are several other factors at play that will intrigue us and challenge the pollsters and analysts. The numbers of seats that will be contested are now 41 instead of 36 as has previously been the case. A new party, the Congress of the People (COP), a splinter from the United National Congress (UNC), has so far been surprising everyone, even leading in recent polls done by Peter Wickham of Barbados. Its leader is also ahead of Patrick Manning as choice for Prime Minister. This makes it all the more interesting because even if we forget the fate of third parties, given the racial politics of Trinidad and Tobago one would logically expect the two Indian-based parties to destroy each other and leave the PNM riding comfortably.

But as the parties launched their campaigns last weekend, a number of things have surfaced that can change the political landscape or perhaps, even strengthen the chances of the PNM. Let us first look at the PNM. Manning is a character that functions with a strange mind set. It is difficult to know what drives him, even considering that he wants to be a Minister of Religion when he leaves politics and has this desire to drive a bus. He does and says the strangest things. He announced the date for elections and then proceeded to have a screening process to guide his selection of candidates. Total confusion followed, leading one writer to say that the PNM was competing with the UNC for confusion and mayhem. A number of ‘old’ and trusted PNMites were discarded based, he claimed, on internal polls he commissioned. None has created as much attention as that of Ken Valley, a Deputy Political leader. The constituency committees in areas where the incumbents were discarded were up in arms. There were protests and Balisier House had to be cordoned off from the protesters, some of whom indicated that Manning had failed their own internal polls. But Manning might get away with this given the racial politics of Trinidad and Tobago. There was talk of some of those discarded crossing over to the COP, but to have done that would have been to draw criticisms as sour grapes. A taxi driver reflected to me what might be the typical reaction of PNM voters. He is dissatisfied with the screening process and with other things, but he is PNM to the bone and he will not vote for any of those other parties. Will many of them stay away from the polls? And hand victory to those others! You kidding! It is however still early times and we have to watch how events unfold as race and characters mix.

Then there is the UNC with colourful and strange personalities at the head of what has now become the UNC Alliance, an alliance of the UNC and minority parties, now minus Stephen Cadiz, Chairman of Yes TT who has pulled out in anger. Being aware of the likelihood of the splitting of votes the UNC has been calling on the COP to join the alliance, but of course given the bad blood between Dookeran and Panday who engineered his move away from the UNC, this was highly unlikely. It was commonly felt that Opposition leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar would have emerged as leader of the Alliance especially since Panday confided in some that his appetite to be Prime Minister was no longer there. After a meeting of the leadership of the Alliance a strange joint leadership arrangement of Warner and Panday was announced. This was supposed to settle once and for all the system of racial politics in Trinidad and Tobago. When asked who would be leader, Panday said that any of the top three could be even though it is known that the leader of the major party will be called upon to be Prime Minister.

This disappointed many who no longer see Panday as a fit candidate for the job. When a furore broke out about the discarding of Kamla Persad-Bissessar, Panday quickly said that there were greater things in store for her and apparently hinted at the possibility of her being President. A disappointed Kamla whose future in the UNC was in doubt, lashed out at the macho leadership and said no one would keep her down. She wanted no political gifts from any but the people. Panday then shifted gear and suggested that she might be called upon to head the UNC Alliance Woman’s Arm. But this will be to reinforce the very thing she spoke out about, the UNC’s gender politics with its macho image. So we wait to see how this will work itself out. As if that was not enough, Panday welcomed Ramesh Maharaj back to the fold and appointed him special adviser on security and Warner even offered him a seat. This is a man who had fallen out with Panday and formed his own Team Unity. Now he has emerged again as he often does around these times. The appearance of Maharaj as part of the UNC Alliance leadership team will be one other stumbling block to opposition unity since Cop will have nothing to do with him.

The Congress of the People meanwhile sits away from this confusion, picking up a few disillusioned UNC personnel, some of whom have become part of the electoral team, among them attorneys Prakash Ramadhan and Anand Ramlogan who were lawyers quite recently representing Panday. As the election moves into the second week this is the situation as it stands. New situations will undoubtedly develop. All parties had huge crowds at the rallies that kicked off their campaigns. The focus of attention will obviously be on the UNC and COP. Will there be any serious move from the UNC to the COP? How will the Indian financiers react to a situation where those parties could destroy each other and allow the PNM to make inroads into constituencies that were formally denied them? While the mass base of the UNC might remain, there can conceivably be a move by the Indian middle class to COP. But anything is possible. If the polls continue to show COP and its leader in a favourable position what impact might this have on traditional UNC voters? Can Warner deliver anything to the UNC alliance apart from a heavy purse which it is commonly believed was what catapulted him to be part of the leadership duo, or the odd couple as some one called them? We have to look at developments in the campaign to see how the events of the past weekend will play themselves out. There will certainly be a lot more to come. We cannot count out anything at the moment. This is indeed Trini politics for you!